NFL - Denver at San Diego (8:00 PM ET – ESPN)
At this point, there aren’t a whole lot of teams looking to match up with San Diego in the final two weeks or the playoffs, as the Chargers are hitting their stride
2007-12-21
At this point, there aren’t a whole lot of teams looking to match up with San Diego in the final two weeks or the playoffs, as the Chargers are hitting their stride, having won four straight games outright and ATS. On Monday, Christmas Eve, they’ll look for five in a row when they host Denver, a team that’s fallen out of playoff contention with losses in three of its L4.
The hosts are a 9-point favorite and boast a record of 6-1 SU & ATS at home in ’07, outscoring teams by a 28.1-15.4 margin. They will also be looking to extend a three game SU & ATS winning streak vs. the Broncos in which they’ve scored 41.3 PPG. HC Mike Shanahan’s team wraps up a road schedule which has seen them go 2-5 SU & 1-6 ATS. The SU winner of this AFC West battle is 19-1-3 ATS.
The Broncos will kiss 2007 goodbye and hope for a better tomorrow, but few would relish the role of spoiler like Mike Shanahan. The offense could find a prime opportunity to excel under the watch of up-and-coming QB Jay Cutler against a defense struggling with injury, but it is the Denver defense that may stand between the Broncos and victory. Stopping RB LaDainain Tomlinson has will be goal #1, a potential downfall for one of the league’s worst rushing defenses.
The Chargers took way too long to figure out the RB needed the football more often than not, and now, despite earning a berth into the playoffs, the stage is set for further disappointment. The defense need LB Shawne Merriman to make the pass rush work, a facet that enhances nearly every other aspect of the defense. The offense has yet to provide a respectable passing game despite the presence of TE Antonio Gates, and continued struggles of QB Philip Rivers only worsens the situation.
Keys to the Game
Denver is out for a taste of revenge after being pulverized 41-3 at home in Week 5. Since that embarrassment, the Denver offense started scoring points to match yardage production as Cutler became more comfortable with his receivers. Division games normally bring out the best in the revenge-minded underdog and the Broncos will want to turn around 2-9 ATS mark versus AFC West foes. The San Diego running game has come around as Tomlinson has made his typical late-season push. With two division tilts left, San Diego will want to keep momentum building and are 22-9 ATS when they rush for 125 to 150 yards.
Trends
~ Denver is 21-31-2 ATS on MNF over the last 24 years and San Diego is 15-10 ATS in same timeframe.
~ The SU winner of this AFC West battle is 19-1-3 ATS.
StatFox Edge – Broncos cover
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